Posts Tagged ‘Dennis Shanahan’

Honeymoon over

The latest Newspoll has the 2PP at 55-45 [PDF]. Dennis is back onto his favourite numbers – PPM ratings. Discussion at The Poll Bludger, where the latest Essential Research data is at 59-41.

But bear in mind that the Opposition has found its winning critique of the Rudd Government now, and it should be gaining traction any day now. No, it’s not the repressive plan to censor Internet content. And it’s not the plan to throw more money at the Australian motor industry and shelter it from its non-competitiveness rather than soften the transition. Nope, it’s something much more important.

Kevin Rudd is peculiar. Pass it on.

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Honeymoon over

Newspoll is at 54-46 on a 2PP basis [1.1MB PDF]. Dennis comments on Rudd’s rise in economic management perceptions and Turnbull’s fall; he also looks at the falling level of support for an ETS.

Discussion at The Poll Bludger, where it is also reported that Essential Research is at 61-39 this week.

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Dennis Shanahan is back to his hilarious best. Bernard Keane takes him down.

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Honeymoon over

Newspoll has the 2PP at 56-44. Dennis breaks the numbers down in his own special way. And he still waits for the Messiah. Samantha Maiden wrote a preview of the results last night.

Discussion at The Poll Bludger, which also reports that the latest Essential Research polling remains at 58-42.

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Shorter Shanahan:

Because the Rudd Government doesn’t plan to completely change every detail of immigration policy, they are exactly the same as the Howard and Keating Governments.

Yes, Dennis, detention centres will still exist. Some people will even be held in them. I will agree that the Rudd Government appears prepared to continue the semantic games about what is and isn’t part of Australia. You assert that “the Labor Government intends to continue to decide who comes into Australia and how,” invoking the language of your idol, John Winston Howard. But there are some core principles in the new policy that seem to overshadow any similarities to the glory days of mandatory detention:

  • People should be held in detention if there are legitimate grounds to believe that they pose a risk.
  • Absent a reasonable grounds to suspect a risk is posed, people should not be held in detention.
  • Children should not be held in detention.
  • The Government’s decisions about risk and detention should be subject to an appropriate level of judicial review.
  • People should be detained for as short a time as possible, whether the eventual result is the granting of asylum or deportation.

Seems a pretty clear distinction to me.

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Pundits keep spinning

… but still don’t get any real traction.

Newspoll’s 2PP figure remains at 57-43. The preferred PM figures do show a shift – lifting Admiral Nelson to the point where he isn’t within the margin of error of single digits; it’s now 66-17. Newspoll also inserted some fuel questions into this poll – courtesy of Mumble, the regular polling data has been unearthed here and the petrol data here.

Essential Research also has new polling data showing the 2PP at 54-46. They show Rudd’s approval at 57%, with some extra questions about petrol pricing and whether Dolly and Tip should call it a day.

So, where does that leave us? Rudd’s personal approval level has dropped, but it’s still several orders of magnitude above Nelson. Rudd had a bad week in terms of managing the news cycle and made some clear missteps, and Nelson didn’t trip over his own shoelaces for a change, but nothing in the past week has won over the hearts and minds of voters. As Tim at the Tree of Knowledge notes, Nelson has gone to great expense (not to mention raising his own blood pressure in Parliament) for very little gain.

Of course, the universe’s leading Newspoll expert has a somewhat different interpretation. Distilled to its essence:

Rudd has been very careful not to promise lower petrol prices, and the poll shows voting intentions have not moved — consequently, I conclude that the voters are extremely upset that Rudd has broken his promise of lower petrol prices.

Champagne Dennis.

ELSEWHERE: More commentary and discussion can be found in the usual places — The Poll Bludger, Possum and Larvatus Prodeo.

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Sky falls again

Three times in one week. Now we just need a Newspoll for Denny Penny to interpret.

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A bumper week for Dennis. The sky is quite obviously falling for Kevin Rudd.

As always, Dennis’s commentary is extensively and painstakingly thorough in establishing the credibility of his claims by attributing all of the details to reliable sources:

In addition to frustration within the bureaucracy over delays caused by funnelling too many decisions through the PM’s office, there is concern that good policy is being sacrificed to solve publicity problems.

There is also is increasing uncertainty about internal power and personnel assessments when powerful new senators arrive after July 1. There is a growing feeling the Rudd Government remains ill-defined except for symbolism and stunts.

There are Labor figures who are concerned that micro-management and media manipulation are no substitute for having a leader who is providing broader direction on policy and substance.

Methinks Dennis can feel it in his loins.

A more rational examination of Rudd’s performance is given by MegaGeorge, although his focus on the politics neglects the role of the media in controlling the “national story”. Over at Larvatus Prodeo, Kim has some of those issues covered.

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Dennis bloody Shanahan:

Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull took full advantage of a damaging split in the Labor Government over the issue of the day – petrol prices.

Got irony?

Faced with the most pressure he has experienced in parliament so far, the Prime Minister’s paper-shuffling anxiety index rose to new heights. At one stage, he was shuffling 17 piles of paper on his desk, with an extra one on the seat next to him.

At times Rudd would pick up a sheet of paper from one pile, and without reading it, add it to another stack. At other times, he would shift blank sheets of paper from pile to pile, or write a couple of words on one.

Rudd piled written advice from Wayne Swan’s adviser, Jim Chalmers, folded advice from Anthony Albanese and added notes torn out of the Treasurer’s parliamentary folder to an ever-increasing heap at his right hand.

It’s a wonder he didn’t have a butler shuffling papers for him.

It was a day of high anxiety for the Government after its first damaging leak chronicled differences in Camelot, with a letter from Energy Minister Martin Ferguson belittling FuelWatch.

Camelot is crumbling? Sounds grim. Is there a glimmer of hope for Rudd and Co.?

Labor was still able to defend itself on the grounds of economic management, while accusing Turnbull of using petrol policy to undermine his leader.

So you mean the Government are actually right on the issues and pointed out the hypocrisy of Liberal bleating about debate and dissent within the Cabinet? Thanks for including one sentence about that. So, what was the end result of the day?

Yet, at the end of the day, the Coalition stood up and used the leaked letter from Ferguson to deadly effect.

Of course they did. I’ll keep an eye out for the funeral announcement.

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Some brilliance from a commenting Bolthead:

On the Right we have – Andrew Bolt, Gerard Henderson, Janet Albrechtsen & Piers Ackerman


On the Left we have – David Marr, John Faine, Kerry O’Brian, Tony Jones, Philip Coorey, Brian Toohey, Peter Hartcher, Misha Schubert, Jason Koutsoukis, George Megalogenis, Glen Milne(depending on who’s in Government), Philip Addams, Richard Carlton, Dennis Shanahan, Michael Costello, Annabel Crabb, Laurie Oakes, Michael Brisenden, Lenore Taylor, Michelle Gratten, Gerard McManus, Michael Harvey and any other that you may want to add to the list.

That’s right – the GG’s finest, the Poison Dwarf and ace pollster Dennis Shanahan, have been outed as lefties. And they’ve been concealing it so well. Not to mention the decidedly even-handed Megageorge.

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