Posts Tagged ‘Dennis Shanahan’

Honeymoon over

The latest Newspoll has the 2PP at 55-45 [PDF]. Dennis is back onto his favourite numbers – PPM ratings. Discussion at The Poll Bludger, where the latest Essential Research data is at 59-41.

But bear in mind that the Opposition has found its winning critique of the Rudd Government now, and it should be gaining traction any day now. No, it’s not the repressive plan to censor Internet content. And it’s not the plan to throw more money at the Australian motor industry and shelter it from its non-competitiveness rather than soften the transition. Nope, it’s something much more important.

Kevin Rudd is peculiar. Pass it on.

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Honeymoon over

Newspoll is at 54-46 on a 2PP basis [1.1MB PDF]. Dennis comments on Rudd’s rise in economic management perceptions and Turnbull’s fall; he also looks at the falling level of support for an ETS.

Discussion at The Poll Bludger, where it is also reported that Essential Research is at 61-39 this week.

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Dennis Shanahan is back to his hilarious best. Bernard Keane takes him down.

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Honeymoon over

Newspoll has the 2PP at 56-44. Dennis breaks the numbers down in his own special way. And he still waits for the Messiah. Samantha Maiden wrote a preview of the results last night.

Discussion at The Poll Bludger, which also reports that the latest Essential Research polling remains at 58-42.

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Shorter Shanahan:

Because the Rudd Government doesn’t plan to completely change every detail of immigration policy, they are exactly the same as the Howard and Keating Governments.

Yes, Dennis, detention centres will still exist. Some people will even be held in them. I will agree that the Rudd Government appears prepared to continue the semantic games about what is and isn’t part of Australia. You assert that “the Labor Government intends to continue to decide who comes into Australia and how,” invoking the language of your idol, John Winston Howard. But there are some core principles in the new policy that seem to overshadow any similarities to the glory days of mandatory detention:

  • People should be held in detention if there are legitimate grounds to believe that they pose a risk.
  • Absent a reasonable grounds to suspect a risk is posed, people should not be held in detention.
  • Children should not be held in detention.
  • The Government’s decisions about risk and detention should be subject to an appropriate level of judicial review.
  • People should be detained for as short a time as possible, whether the eventual result is the granting of asylum or deportation.

Seems a pretty clear distinction to me.

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Pundits keep spinning

… but still don’t get any real traction.

Newspoll’s 2PP figure remains at 57-43. The preferred PM figures do show a shift – lifting Admiral Nelson to the point where he isn’t within the margin of error of single digits; it’s now 66-17. Newspoll also inserted some fuel questions into this poll – courtesy of Mumble, the regular polling data has been unearthed here and the petrol data here.

Essential Research also has new polling data showing the 2PP at 54-46. They show Rudd’s approval at 57%, with some extra questions about petrol pricing and whether Dolly and Tip should call it a day.

So, where does that leave us? Rudd’s personal approval level has dropped, but it’s still several orders of magnitude above Nelson. Rudd had a bad week in terms of managing the news cycle and made some clear missteps, and Nelson didn’t trip over his own shoelaces for a change, but nothing in the past week has won over the hearts and minds of voters. As Tim at the Tree of Knowledge notes, Nelson has gone to great expense (not to mention raising his own blood pressure in Parliament) for very little gain.

Of course, the universe’s leading Newspoll expert has a somewhat different interpretation. Distilled to its essence:

Rudd has been very careful not to promise lower petrol prices, and the poll shows voting intentions have not moved — consequently, I conclude that the voters are extremely upset that Rudd has broken his promise of lower petrol prices.

Champagne Dennis.

ELSEWHERE: More commentary and discussion can be found in the usual places — The Poll Bludger, Possum and Larvatus Prodeo.

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Sky falls again

Three times in one week. Now we just need a Newspoll for Denny Penny to interpret.

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