Every psephologist’s favourite comedic festival, the reporting of Newspoll results, has commenced its 2009 season. The latest result shows the 2PP at 54-46, which is fairly consistent with most of the results from 2008. Except for the last one – it was a 59-41 result, which most sensible people regarded as an outlier.
So, what does The Australian, home of the people who understand Newspoll because they own it, make of that result? Well, it obviously means that the Coalition has made great gains over the break. Samantha Maiden thinks this is such an important and impressive conclusion that she says it not once, but twice.
Let’s for a moment assume that Maiden’s interpretation of the polls is correct – that rather than being an unrepresentative sample in the final 2008 poll, Labor had really made some gains just before the break and those gains have been eroded over the holidays. Isn’t it rather sad that the only time the Coalition has managed to gain any ground is when they said and did absolutely nothing?
UPDATE: And more from Possum.