Time to do some warm-ups for tonight:
I’m heading out of town for the evening, so a Happy New Year to all.
Time to do some warm-ups for tonight:
I’m heading out of town for the evening, so a Happy New Year to all.
A popular denialist meme at the moment seems to be, “but it’s cold outside!” The Australian has printed an excerpt of a longer article by Christopher Booker, titled “2008 was the year man-made global warming was disproved”. Booker suggests that it has been so cold lately that:
This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.
This is a silly argument. Transient weather events cannot be taken as evidence for or against long-term climate change. And it’s an argument that can’t endure – wait just a short while, and it can be countered with this:
+ Dallas hit 83 degrees, breaking its 2005 high temperature of 81.
+ In Iowa, the warm temperatures caused major visibility issues.
+ Madison, Wisconsin looked to hit a record high of 50 — followed by a cold front snapping temps back down.
+ In the Sierra Nevadas, it finally snowed on Dec 13 — weeks later than in years past. With an earlier melt, anxiety is on the rise.
+ Tennessee also looked forward to warm weather. The headline: Today’s forecast: Warm, wind advisory all day.
As Jed notes, relying on anecdote and cherry-picked weather events doesn’t prove or disprove anything. The only consolation is that time itself negates the argument. But perhaps the denialists who run such arguments are hoping that nobody will point out, and nobody will notice on their own, when the weather pattern runs against their argument.
Unfortunately, sometimes they reach too far back into the past and eviscerate their own claims. Take this recent National Review Online commentary by Deroy Murdock, in which he claims that:
the National Snow and Ice Data Center has found that the extent of Arctic sea ice has expanded by 13.2 percent over last year. This 270,000 square-mile growth in Arctic sea ice is just slightly larger than Texas’s 268,820 square miles.
Murdock links to a commentary on NSIDC data that was written back at the beginning of September. He neglects to note that “last year” was itself anomalous – 2007 saw the lowest level of Arctic sea ice coverage in recorded history, so regression to the mean can account for the 13.2% “expansion” – but even that doesn’t matter at this point. Because four months later, this is what the data looks like:
For the past week or two, the ice extent is identical to the same time in 2007.
Time passes, and climate change arguments based on isolated events fall apart. Of course, this is not only an issue for denialist arguments – as Wah notes, alarmist claims that attempt to link specific catastrophic events to climate change are just as dodgy. Reasonable and responsible science isn’t about these anecdotal claims and counter-claims – it’s a shame that this is what colours the public and political debate about climate change.
I just finished watching my DVD set of The Wire. Even in the United States it received less attention from the public than it deserved; in Australia, it seems to have aired (very) late at night occasionally, but to my knowledge it hasn’t been shown regularly or marketed in any way. My discovery of the show came from reading overwhelmingly positive comments online, after which I downloaded a few episodes and resolved to buy it as soon as the DVD set (holy cow – 64% off at the moment!) was available.
Anyone who is interested in discussions of how and why modern institutions and governments fail their people should watch this show. Now.
I am certainly not the first person to compare David Simon’s show to Dickens. The fifth and final season of the show itself invites the comparison – as the (fictional, but inspired by the real paper that Simon worked for) Baltimore Sun’s editors strive to capture the “Dickensian aspect” of some social ill in their quest for a Pulitzer, the irony is that the show itself successfully does so. Across its five-year run, the show captures the everyday lives of police officers, drug addicts, drug dealers, the working poor, public officials, school teachers, troubled kids, reformed criminals and journalists. While telling compelling stories about interesting characters (with some superb acting, writing and staging), The Wire examines the problems and failures of American society – many of which can be seen in Australia, as well.
(SPOILER ALERT – this may be obvious, but if you follow the hyperlinks you’ll encounter some discussion of events that take place in the show.)
It is a sign of the value of the show as social commentary that so many news and political outlets continue to discuss The Wire. This CNN commentary by John Blake shows a West Baltimore native’s evaluation of the show’s realism. The political themes of the show have also been discussed by both liberals and conservatives. In my view, The Wire doesn’t endorse one particular political ideology, and it doesn’t try to ram a particular solution down the viewer’s throat. It examines where American society stands now – warts and all. That is the real authenticity of the show – it is not so much about whether the details of Baltimore are done exactly right, but that the society Simon et al. created faces the same challenges that real people in these everyday situations would face. In my opinion, this is also why the final season is weaker than the previous four (although it is still better than just about anything else on TV) – the problems and the dilemmas seem more contrived, and appear to have been designed to highlight a specific agenda that was in the creators’ minds.
It is probably obvious from my choice of pseudonym that I am a great fan of The West Wing. Where that show is an idealistic depiction of how government can serve society, The Wire is its realistic counterpart. Anyone with an interest in politics and social change should watch the show – I suspect you will both study and enjoy it.
The Friday Freebie is where I share an online, open-access resource that I think readers might find interesting and useful. Each week, I will introduce a free resource that I think will be useful to teh angry Leftists – books, podcasts, web sites, etc. The aim is to compile a toolkit for understanding and advancing progressive ideals.
This week’s freebie is the work of one of the leading scholars of the 21st century, Lawrence Lessig. A law professor at Stanford (who is soon to move back to Harvard), Lessig has been an advocate for applying law and technology to produce the optimal outcomes for society and culture. One of the primary issues Lessig has targeted is the nature of traditional copyright law and its potential to stifle innovation – he was a founding board member of the Creative Commons project and has served on the board of other organisations such as the Free Software Foundation and Electronic Frontier Foundation. More recently, Lessig has turned his attention to corruption, and in particular to the ethical issues involved in taking other people’s (or organisations’) money – for instance, he has been involved in setting up the Change Congress site to address corruption of the political process.
Many of Lessig’s arguments transcend any concept of left-right orientation – they are just important and practical reflections on what an effective and prosperous society requires. And the great thing is that Lessig’s actions meet the ideals he espouses, so that most of his work can be freely accessed, reproduced and extended. Here are some starting points:
I’ll finish this freebie with a trivia question. Lawrence Lessig was portrayed in an episode of “The West Wing” – drawing on his earlier activities in assisting eastern European countries to develop constitutional frameworks for their new democracies, Christopher Lloyd played the role of Lessig. This makes Lessig one of two real people who were played by actors in “The West Wing”. Can anybody name the other?
Do you have a tip for future freebies? Contact me with any suggestions or requests.
TrueSceptic posted this in a comment on my old thread, but it really deserves to be on the front page.
Christmas is about peace and tolerance. Few people set a better example of how to contradict those principles than Graeme Bird. In fact, Bird’s achievements in irrational ranting have been recognised by the American blogosphere – he was nominated in the 2008 Golden Winger Awards for Excellence in Wingnuttery, although he didn’t make it into the final vote. But it should reinforce our national pride to know that our country of 21 million can produce moon-howling idiocy that is a match for the best the USA has to offer.
In recognising his achievement, it seems apt to revisit some of Bird’s work. TrueSceptic has added some more content to his collection of quotes from Graeme’s interactions online. With my sincere thanks, here is the Extended Bird:
People who aren’t mindless leftists just admit they are wrong when they have no evidence.
So you are just lying again and you are an idiot.
No in fact David you are just lying filth.
But thats not going to happen because you are lying.
Either you have the evidence or you are a stupid slut.
You should commit Hari Kari right now to make up for your dishonour but the fact is you could not have read the evidence BECAUSE ITS NOT THERE you stupid gang moll whore.
But the fact is you are an alarmist. In which case you know jack shit about science and are in no position to lecture anyone on anything at all.
Bang up job your crowd did. Seeing as Aids (a hard disease to catch) is still with us in spades. You are just in no position to be arrogant. You are in fact a dim bulb.
No it doesn’t you are lying.
No thats just so idiotic. The problem isn’t with McIntyre its with you. The problem isn’t with definitions its with the total lack of evidence.
Can I request that you stop being an idiot?
If thats not to much to ask?
If you were not being an idiot then you could submit a report and I’d tell you if I thought it was to the required standard. But no alarmist line-ball reports exist.
LISTEN YOU MORON. SHOW UP WITH THE EVIDENCE.
Lets have it now.
Its just terrible that we have to be walking around and breathing the same air with people as stupid as this fellow Patrick.
Goodness me. Whose the dope who said this. Its almost not worth scrolling through the confederacy of idiocy just to find out.
We might have to take time out to explain to the leftists just what the term “evidence” means.
You are basically lying here.
How about just coming up with some evidence you ignorant fraudulent phoney jerk?
Look you total moron. Just 1 study will do if indeed it has the evidence. Now which one has the evidence?
Those guys are just clowns.
Thats not going to work in this situation Steve. This is leftist fraud. This is a commie substitute religion. In fact we won’t be quits with this constant lying and idiocy until we get used to mass-sackings.
Sack the offender and everyone around him in 360 degrees fashion. Just save the taxpayer a lot of money.
I wish I had a time machine just so I could go back in time decades and sack John Quiggin.
But we must look to the future. This controversy has separated the honest from the liars, the scientists from the science-worker imposters, and the reasoned analysts in other fields from the merely ridiculous posers.
In economics 76 ridiculous posers signed a petition for Australia to join the Kyoto idiocy. Now when you get that many failed analysts in one line of work it means that the know-nothings are shutting out those who can actually do the job. Its not a matter of these dim bulbs being merely ineffectual. Clearly they are actively harmful.
I should like to set up an INSTITUTE FOR MASS SACKINGS AND TAX EXEMPTIONS that doubles as a political party.
You see communism in all its variants keeps cropping up in Christendom. It has done so for 1000 years. But prior to the democratic era it was always ruthlessly put down before the victims could network their way near the levers of power and start killing people in the millions.
That all ended with the democratic era. So what this means if we don’t want to be ruthlessly exterminating these hateful iterations of this virus in the Western world, we have to find other ways for democracy to prevent an outbreak in this eschatological-utopianism.
MASS-SACKINGS EARLY ON.
We want mass-sackings of taxeaters who we suspect might even be regarded as a risky prospect to fall for these various perversions and extrapolations of the book-of-revelations.
We want the spirit of Andrew Jackson to inhabit our polity. His detractors called it the “spoils system” but really it was all about not letting anyone ever fool himself that he is entitled to his current place on the public teat.
You are an idiot TrueSkeptic. And a tribal gang moll. Now lets have that evidence.
Aren’t you CO-Bedwetters just the cats pajamas when it comes to endless filibusting.
Lets have that evidence Luke. That stupid slut wasn’t in any position to say where I went off the beam so her comments were pointless. Her comments in fact are always totally mindless. Here and on Deltoid. Content-free.
Lets have some content Luke. You ought not be working at the RMIT with your level of incompetence and epistemological idiocy.
No sister. You have to go to your doctor and get a brain transplant and a slut tumour removal.
Now lets have that evidence for the likelihood of catastrophic warming or lets have your blanket retractions and an admission that you’ve been a stupid lying slut.
Evidence….. for the LIKELIHOOD….. of catastrophic warming….
Now get moving. And for goodness sakes clean yourself up. You look disgusting.
Don’t sugarcoat these people. They are just lunatics, barely reconstructed communists and anonymous frauds. Look at Nexus. He’s just a complete idiot.
They cannot be so stupid that they don’t know what evidence is. So they are frauds. Thats why they are always showing up anonymously. They must know they ought to be sacked from their day-job.
There was nothing good faith about the wild-goose chases these people try to send the rest of us down. There is nothing good faith about the aspersions that they cast on you specifically and others more generally.
These guys are just Gramscian anti-science pack-animals. Utopian-Eschatologists wrong-footed by the collapse of Soviet Communism.
This global warming racket is the longest evidence filibuster in all history.
Several dozens of papers were suggested to you. Not one of them in good faith.
Well you ought to. Because you are a fraud. Or an idiot. You choose. I’m no mindreader.
I’m impressed that Michael Duffy is on top of the situation. Because when I first found out that you guys had no evidence whatsoever when I’d try to tell people about it they wouldn’t believe me. Like they’d assume that the leftists must have some sort of evidence. But they have nothing at all.
I went to Deltoid to ask the mysterious dwarf-Oracle where the evidence could be found. He referred me to Annan who had one estimate of 3 degrees increase with a doubling of CO2 based on Bayesian statistics… entirely inappropriate.
t wasn’t the first time the mysterious Deltoid Dwarf had sent someone astray.
I don’t know whether Dr Marohasy is just waking up to the enormity of this confederacy of arch-stupidity matched up with the outer limits of human dishonesty. Or perhaps she’s running a giant rope-a-dope. But the fact is that people are being lead astray even when they disagree. They are disagreeing but thinking that there is something in it. That the opposition has some sort of knowledge or argument up their sleeve.
Its hard to convince them that the leftists have nothing at all. Just a big fat zero.
No evidence can be found that way you idiot. One study is good enough if it has evidence. So we’ve proved outright that this is just a leftist fraud. Both sides of the argument have to get used to this. Its not some collegial disagreement of opinion.
Lukes a dishonest moron. As is NT as is Nexus, Karoly and all of that crowd. This is not a situation where some decent people are just having a mental block.
EVIDENCE you idiot Luke! No-one said anything about proof. Show up with some evidence you moron or resign.
So Ender you have just seen three threads where none of you idiots could muster a scrap of evidence and you are still pretending that CO2 is going to lead to climate change when the climate always changes.
Look. Climate rationalists who pretend that they are dealing with anything but liars and morons when they argue with these people are just doing more harm then good. More than ever now we have to identify this racket as a moronic cult. Like those comet-watching cultists who all killed themselves. Something like that.
I mean hows Enders form. Day after day lunatics like this and Luke just constantly talking their anti-science trash-talk.
Three threads, no evidence. It doesn’t phase this lunatic Ender.
Stephanie what is your point? Are you in fact another failed analyst who was too stupid to spot this racket right from the getgo?
You diminish yourself with these comments. Its time for people like you to rewrite history and pretend that you were always somewhat dubious about the panic.
The good Doctor didn’t bring skeptics into being. In here conservative way she is likely not yet ready call these hateful frauds out for who they are in mixed company.
I was calling this a fraud when calling this a fraud wasn’t cool.
No thats a flat out filthy dirty lie.
As for holocaust-denial thats exactly what the alarmist crowd are. They are holocaust deniers. To a man the alarmist crowd are DDT-bureaucratisation holocaust-deniers. This is a certain type of mentality here. A mentality of liars, delusion, leftist-projectors and so forth.
Heretofore such mentalities had only affected the humanities. But it was only a matter of time until this poison reached the physical sciences.
Just constant idiocy from Haughton. If its not one thing or another. The 20th century warming is easily explained by anyone not a complete idiot. You showed no such thing.
Well of course not you jerk because it isn’t happening. You can hardly prove global warming if the globe is cooling. You are the biggest idiot I’ve seen in a long time.
And no you are talking idiocy. Because had extra-CO2 had a substantial warming effect it could easily be shown. That it hasn’t been shown after 50 billions of wasted money means that it is no substantial effect.
You are part of it, its a leftist thing, which is why only prosecutions and mass-sackings can cure it.
You idiot sod.
You’ve tried to slip the hypothesis into the conclusion!!!!
The hypothesis is this:
Will the realities of spectroscopy have a massive warming effect on the planet with increasing CO2?
And your reply to that, because you are a moron is: HERE ARE THE REALITIES OF SPECTROSCOPY. THIS IS EVIDENCE!!
You idiot. You dope. You should be euthanised right now for plumbing the outer limits of stupidity.
You tried to prove the conclusion by the hypothesis itself. Go and commit hari-kari. All it takes is a tie and the womens toilet.
Hey you know what buddy?
YOU ARE A FRAUD. YOU ARE A LIAR.
And on top of that you are caught on this very blog defaming other people.
The answer is for you to shape up and to stop being a fraud and to stop being in liar.
Sort your act out, step outside, do whatever you have to do. But you are a science incompetent. And you ought never have been on the public tit except on traditional welfare to just keep you out of the way.
This movement will wreck everything. Its the other node of evil on top of jihadism and worse because it makes jihadism possible.
This is not some honest misunderstanding. This is a serious movement with serious momentum. We cannot soft-peddle these guys. They will destroy everything.
I’m not toning down anything. If you don’t see me pointing out that people are frauds its only because I know you’ll wipe such comments.
Think of the hateful things they’ve said to people maintaining the scientific ethos.
You just had to slip that lie into the end of the sentence didn’t you.
Its you who are the idiot TrueSkeptic. I’ll put up with a lot but I’m not putting up with some evidence-free-idiot like you showing up here and saying I’m running some sort of a parody.
I got where your commie-lying-ass was coming from given your last comment on Deltoid. Thats the place for you if you want to be an idiot.
And I should like people to contemplate the sort of defamatory statements that people like true-skeptic make at Deltoid before getting too worried about that poopy-pants leftist nutball Haughton getting uptight about this or that.
Now TrueSkeptic. Have you got that evidence? No you haven’t. So your whole act is fraudulent.
This is just so depressing. It feels like the onset to the fall of Rome or something. This must be the most depressing time at least since the 70’s. And the first time that the debasement of almost all traditional human values has infected science with such virulence. We used to expect this crap in the humanities. But not in the hard physical sciences.
I’m calling bullshit on that one. You are claiming there is evidence against it on the grounds that the computer said no. Thats a confession that the Goddard model is wrong.
I’m saying you are lying. What is the evidence AGAINST the snowball earth!!!!
Get yourself some sort of credible experimental methodology.
They can certainly adapt faster than the suggested historica changes. If a species is that fundamentally useless that it cannot change to some tiny move towards neutral over 100’s of generations than I’m afraid it does not deserve to live.
Of course these alarmists are talking about some sort of runaway acidification. Its all book of revelations and fund-raising.
You weren’t helpful in any case. And you were insulting to the blog owner. So I don’t know what you are getting poopy-pants about.
Well yes I do. You are losing the chess game and instead of conceding you find a way to kick the board off the table. Its the leftist staged walkout. A good but all too common thing. You won’t be missed.
You really want me to repeat what you (or someone with you monicker) said at Deltoid, you stupid little bitch?
Your arrogance implies that you have some evidence. Lets have it or just accept that you are a dishonest tramp.
I’m taking a punt and suggesting that you are female. But it doesn’t matter either way. The terms still apply.
“Why would someone’s sex matter?” It wouldn’t. You’d be a mindless whore either way. As the last post attests no evidence has been given in four threads. And you haven’t backtracked at Deltoid have you you stupid slut.
And you aren’t going to retract anything you said. You aren’t coming up with evidence. So obviously you are just an idiot. If you are a scientist you are a fraud.
For petes sakes Joseph you moron. All you’ve come up with is evidence that the CO2 levels are rising. But you are instead claiming that human-caused warming is REAL. Not real and tiny but just REAL. Which is a stupid statement amongst many stupid mantras that zombies like yourself are always repeating.
So you muster evidence for one proposition. But you claim vindication for another. Why would people waste time at a blog of someone who was that goddamned lame?
Can anyone tell me when this plague of stupidity will even so much as let up. Take time for a holiday? A holiday from ubiquitous stupidity. That would at least be a start.
I mean this moron Joseph shows up. Claims he’s got evidence for one thing. And then claims vindication for something entirely different.
Joseph you are a hard leftist aren’t you? You’re a lefty face it. You’re a very stupid person. That is for sure.
Given your complete idiocy and utter mindlessness when it comes to the subject of the global warming science-fraud this is a sober thought indeed.
There you are over at Deltoid, an idiotic bully-boy advocate of the intellectual status quo and one cannot believe that you are going to shake this shabby epistemology in your day job.
You are not a scientist Bernard. You are a science worker. Anyone who has fallen for the global warming racket and hangs out with other nutballs at Deltoid can never be considered to be a scientist. Anyone labouring under the curse of the lone paradigm is no scientist and is only getting in the way.
Why do any of you Deltoid nutballs show up here in the first place? I’m telling you you are not fit for scientific discussion and you only get in the way.
Science is about discussing the relative plausibility of DIFFERENT paradigms. There is no place in science for the rigid and constipated favouring of a single paradigm. Much less a currently favoured one. Nor yet even one whose recent heritage comes out of leftist lunacy.
No its the delusionist believers in the global warming fraud that put a political bent on it.
Clearly you are a mindless leftist goon. Or you wouldn’t buy into something so obviously from. For which you cannot come up with any empirical evidence.
This is an outgrowth of what the communists used to call DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM. You argue it out. But once the central party line is taken you believe it like mindless zombies.
Ergo it doesn’t matter what qualifications you have. You will always be a mindless idiot and totally unsuited for work in science.
The only thing the rest of us can do is cut off your funds to prevent you from getting in the way.
So obviously FRAUDULENT is what I meant to say.
Field workers are not Field Marshals. You lack the conceptual ability or objectivity to comment on matters that bridge many specialties. This can be deduced merely from the fact of you being involved with the campaign against warmer winters for the Laplanders.
Pull your head in Travis. TrueSkeptic is a supporter of blatant science-fraud and was engaging in anonymous defamation on more than one forum.
Just stop lying sod you idiot. Its just unbelievable the constant lying from these morons.
I never said otherwise you lying idiot. In fact that was one of my major points. Here we have another liar trying to mislead third parties over what I said. Threadwrecker.
So in fact you agree with me than? Given as you’ve parroted one of my points but lied and pretended that I said something else.
You are such an idiot NT!!! What was your point????
What was your point? Apart from gratuitous displays of idiocy and dishonesty? What was your point?
Damn. What a complete jackass you are! Are you attempting to make donkey of the year a one jack-ass race?
You ought to come in under your own name fella. Hopefully that you incentivize you to lift your game.
Don’t misrepresent what we are saying here Gould. Bring not your science-fraud facetiousness to our presence. If people such as yourself followed NT’s three post holiday from stupidity, on a more permanent basis, people like me wouldn’t have to be nasty and you could confine yourself to honest and productive speculation.
Its really hard not to look down on bozos who have fallen for this unbelievable racket. Its hard not to kick them in the throat for just breathing and being so damn stupid.
In each case this is the same unscience, unscientific lack of humility, and hard-core stupidity in operation.
You couldn’t find a plausible computer model based on alarmist science if your life depended on it you idiot.
Just come good with the evidence fraudster.
What do you mean by MAJOR you dope. Who said it was a major contributer. No-one on this entire thread you utter utter utter moron.
What an idiot you are. What a total tool you are. You don’t have two neurons to rub together.
My god you make me sick just how stupid you are.
But then you did buy into this global warming racket didn’t you. So we are to expect any amount of stupidity and dishonesty from you.
My GOD you are stupid.
And what is your problem with cosmic rays you idiot. To you imagine for one minute that you have blown away THAT very good science.
You are too stupid to comment on blogs sod.
You are an idiot.
You are a dim bulb.
Still knocks me out what a thickhead you are.
You cannot turn you back for 1 hour but that one of these UN-believing blockheads is going to misrepresent every damn thing anyone he disagrees with has ever said.
This is also highlights the problem with seeing everything in terms of steady-state watts per square metre. These people are unbelievably stupid but this static equilibrium model robs them of whatever tiny perspective they might be capable of having.
The UN as our new arbiter of scientific reality. Lord help us. What can we do the to this grip of the reign of mindless zombies?
No-one said that it was a major source Sod you moron. If by that you mean in terms of many-watts per square metre. You are just a liar. Its important however to understand this matter beyond the insane and naive restrictions of watts-per-square metre.
Notice that each and every idiot who has fallen for the global warming fraud appears to be a pathological liar.
Ok you lying filth Sod. Name one post that shows that someone was claiming that averaged out its many watts per square metre?
Many watts per square metre Sod?
See you are just a liar.
Redeem yourself Sod you lying idiot and discuss your views on the thermal heat maximum of 55 million years ago. And for the love of God can you break out of this watts per square metre idiocy.
Merry Christmas to all. Here’s one last present: