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	<title>Not a Hedgehog &#187; polls</title>
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	<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com</link>
	<description>A progressive outlook on politics in Australia and abroad</description>
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		<title>Not a Hedgehog &#187; polls</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com</link>
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			<item>
		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/21/honeymoon-over-41/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/21/honeymoon-over-41/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 21:04:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/21/honeymoon-over-41/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[… and Zombie Law dead.
The latest Morgan poll shows a narrowing in the 2PP to 57-43. As William Bowe notes, it looks like a little shine is coming off the halo Labor picked up in handling the financial crisis, taking the back toward the ordinary blowout range they’ve occupied.
It’ll be interesting to see whether Julia [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1707&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>… and Zombie Law dead.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4366/">latest Morgan poll</a> shows a narrowing in the 2PP to 57-43. As <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/20/morgan-57-43-2/">William Bowe notes</a>, it looks like a little shine is coming off the halo Labor picked up in handling the financial crisis, taking the back toward the ordinary blowout range they’ve occupied.</p>
<p>It’ll be interesting to see whether <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillards-lastminute-deal-saves-fair-work-bill-20090320-94fp.html?page=-1">Julia Gillard’s handling</a> of repealing WorkChoices and getting the Fair Work legislation through the Senate widens the gap again.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
		</media:content>
	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/10/honeymoon-over-40/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/10/honeymoon-over-40/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/10/honeymoon-over-40/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Newspoll sees the 2PP at 56-44. Dennis wants Peter. Andrew wants Peter (but not just yet). Could it be time for the saviour to bring Peace on Earth? I hope the Rapturing comes soon, because I’m getting really bored with this.
Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
       <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1696&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>The <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25163621-601,00.html">latest Newspoll</a> sees the 2PP at 56-44. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25163881-601,00.html">Dennis wants Peter</a>. <a href="http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/troubled_turnbull/">Andrew wants Peter</a> (but not just yet). Could it be time for the saviour to bring Peace on Earth? I hope the Rapturing comes soon, because I’m getting really bored with this.</p>
<p>Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/09/newspoll-56-44-8/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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	</item>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/07/honeymoon-over-39/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/07/honeymoon-over-39/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 22:10:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/03/07/honeymoon-over-39/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The latest Morgan poll has the 2PP at 61.5-38.5. Labor’s primary vote is above 50%, while the Coalition’s primary has dropped to 33%. Obviously, this is a sign that Peter Costello must bide his time.
Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
       <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1683&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>The <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4363/">latest Morgan poll</a> has the 2PP at 61.5-38.5. Labor’s primary vote is above 50%, while the Coalition’s primary has dropped to 33%. Obviously, this is a sign that Peter Costello must bide his time.</p>
<p>Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/03/06/morgan-615-385-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
		</media:content>
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		<item>
		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/honeymoon-over-38/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/honeymoon-over-38/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:25:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/02/24/honeymoon-over-38/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Having been out of action while the last few polls rolled through doesn&#8217;t seem to have mattered. The latest Newspoll shows the 2PP at 58-42 [PDF of results]. Rudd&#8217;s popularity is up; Turnbull&#8217;s is down. Turnbull&#8217;s net satisfaction is now down to +5, so he is approaching the point where just as many people are [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1661&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Having been out of action while the last few polls rolled through doesn&#8217;t seem to have mattered. The latest Newspoll shows the 2PP at 58-42 [<a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-24-feb.pdf">PDF of results</a>]. Rudd&#8217;s popularity is up; Turnbull&#8217;s is down. Turnbull&#8217;s net satisfaction is now down to +5, so he is approaching the point where just as many people are dissatisfied as are satisfied with his performance. Dennis says <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097783-601,00.html">it&#8217;s all about the Libs imploding</a>.</p>
<p>Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/02/23/newspoll-58-42-4/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/honeymoon-over-37/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/honeymoon-over-37/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2009 20:22:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Samantha Maiden]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/honeymoon-over-37/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every psephologist&#8217;s favourite comedic festival, the reporting of Newspoll results, has commenced its 2009 season. The latest result shows the 2PP at 54-46, which is fairly consistent with most of the results from 2008. Except for the last one &#8211; it was a 59-41 result, which most sensible people regarded as an outlier.
So, what does [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1582&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Every psephologist&#8217;s favourite comedic festival, the reporting of Newspoll results, has commenced its 2009 season. <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-20jan.jpg">The latest result</a> shows the 2PP at 54-46, which is fairly consistent with most of the results from 2008. Except for the last one &#8211; it was a 59-41 result, which most sensible people regarded as an outlier.</p>
<p>So, what does The Australian, home of the people who understand Newspoll because they own it, make of that result? Well, it obviously means that the Coalition has made great gains over the break. Samantha Maiden thinks this is such an important and impressive conclusion that she says it <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24934531-601,00.html">not once</a>, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24935702-601,00.html">but twice</a>.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s for a moment assume that Maiden&#8217;s interpretation of the polls is correct &#8211; that rather than being an unrepresentative sample in the final 2008 poll, Labor had really made some gains just before the break and those gains have been eroded over the holidays. Isn&#8217;t it rather sad that the only time the Coalition has managed to gain any ground is when they said and did absolutely nothing?</p>
<p>Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/01/19/newspoll-54-46-4/">The Poll Bludger</a>, and <a href="http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/01/20/newspoll-labor-54-46/">Larvatus Prodeo</a> has a thread as well.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong> And <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/01/20/newspoll-new-years-bounce-edition/">more from Possum</a>.</p>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/18/honeymoon-over-36/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/18/honeymoon-over-36/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jan 2009 22:04:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stephen Conroy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2009/01/18/honeymoon-over-36/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Polling is starting up again after a break over the holidays. The first Morgan poll of 2009 shows the 2PP at 60-40. Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
However, the most important poll at the moment is for GrodsCorp&#8217;s 2009 unAustralian of the Year. I have cast my vote for Senator Stephen Conroy; Jeremy has done a [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1580&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>Polling is starting up again after a break over the holidays. <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4351/">The first Morgan poll of 2009</a> shows the 2PP at 60-40. Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/01/16/morgan-60-40-5/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p>However, the most important poll at the moment is for <a href="http://www.grods.com/post/4870/">GrodsCorp&#8217;s 2009 unAustralian of the Year</a>. I have cast my vote for Senator Stephen Conroy; <a href="http://anonymouslefty.blogspot.com/2009/01/un-australian-of-year-2009.html">Jeremy has done a nice job</a> of capturing the achievements that make Conroy uniquely deserving of the award. Make sure you register your vote.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/14/honeymoon-over-35/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/14/honeymoon-over-35/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Dec 2008 22:22:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/14/honeymoon-over-35/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Friday&#8217;s Morgan showed the 2PP at 59.5-40.5. Merry Christmas, Malcolm. Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
       <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1459&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4343/">Friday&#8217;s Morgan</a> showed the 2PP at 59.5-40.5. Merry Christmas, Malcolm. Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/12/12/morgan-595-405-2/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/09/honeymoon-over-34/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/09/honeymoon-over-34/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Dec 2008 19:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/12/09/honeymoon-over-34/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This fortnight&#8217;s Newspoll sees the 2PP widen to 59-41. Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
UPDATE: Dennis.
       <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1452&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>This fortnight&#8217;s <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24771879-601,00.html">Newspoll</a> sees the 2PP widen to 59-41. Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/12/08/newspoll-59-41-5/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong> <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24772007-17301,00.html">Dennis</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/28/honeymoon-over-33/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/28/honeymoon-over-33/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Nov 2008 03:43:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/28/honeymoon-over-33/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The fortnightly Morgan poll shows the 2PP at 59.5-40.5, with the ALP&#8217;s primary vote breaking the 50% barrier. Discussion at The Poll Bludger.
       <img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1418&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>The <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4339/">fortnightly Morgan poll</a> shows the 2PP at 59.5-40.5, with the ALP&#8217;s primary vote breaking the 50% barrier. Discussion at <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2008/11/28/morgan-595-405/">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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			<media:title type="html">Toby</media:title>
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		<title>Happy Anniversary &#8211; Honeymoon over</title>
		<link>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/happy-anniversary-honeymoon-over/</link>
		<comments>http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/happy-anniversary-honeymoon-over/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 23 Nov 2008 20:19:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tobias Ziegler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Australian politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://notahedgehog.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/happy-anniversary-honeymoon-over/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Newspoll has come a day early, announcing a 55-45 result on a 2PP basis one year after the election of the Rudd Government.
The poll also looks at voters&#8217; concerns about the economy, with a vague question about whether they would be concerned &#8220;if the federal budget were to go into deficit as a result of [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=notahedgehog.wordpress.com&blog=1375092&post=1384&subd=notahedgehog&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p><a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24695601-601,00.html">Newspoll has come a day early</a>, announcing a 55-45 result on a 2PP basis one year after the election of the Rudd Government.</p>
<p>The poll also looks at voters&#8217; concerns about the economy, with a vague question about whether they would be concerned &#8220;if the federal budget were to go into deficit as a result of further government spending in the new year&#8221;. Not surprisingly, people would tend to be concerned &#8211; but does that mean they would be concerned <em>about</em> the government or that they would be concerned about what it meant for economic conditions? In other words, a budget deficit is a sign that there are serious problems, but it is not clear from this question that the government would be blamed.</p>
<p>More discussion at <a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24695601-601,00.html">The Poll Bludger</a>.</p>
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