My week of cave-dwelling has prevented me from commenting on some of the new poll data. The latest Newspoll and Morgan have both shown a bit of apparent movement back to the Coalition. This brings us back to where we were before APEC and the latest leadership debacle – Labor has a commanding lead in the polls, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the gap could narrow.
But some other sets of numbers have appeared that will bring both detail and context to the election analysis. For starters, Possum Comitatus has posted the latest quarterly breakdown of Newspoll data, and promises to follow up with some analyses in future posts. One quick thing that strikes me – the primary vote is swinging to Labor more than it is swinging against the Coalition, pretty much across the board. That might be a sign that Rudd and Labor are actually winning people over, including those who previously voted for the minor parties. Or it might just be that poll respondents are trying to make sure they give a clear indication that they want a change of government. Time will tell.
Also, the ABC has got Antony Green’s election analysis online. It includes a pretty spiffy set of calculators plus plenty of detail on seats, candidates, etc.
We’re also seeing an explosion of election-oriented sites from both traditional and new media sources – I’ll be following up with a post on those, but you can get cracking by reading the breakdown at The Poll Bludger.
